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Collecting Q&A: Are 2006 First-Growth Futures a Good Investment?

Peter D. Meltzer
Posted: September 27, 2007

Q: With futures prices for first-growths continuing their rise to all-time highs for several recent vintages, regardless of their quality (i.e. 2003: good year; 2005: classic year; 2006: OK year), do you consider these, especially 2006 futures, a good investment with celebrated returns on investment similar to 1990, 1995 and 2000?

A: The investment potential of a given vintage depends not only on the vintages that preceded it, but also those that follow, so any predictions about the future value of 2006 can only be speculative at this point. The 2006 vintage produced many good and a few outstanding wines, but with the possible exceptions of Châteaus Pétrus and Trotanoy, demand has not been nearly as strong as for 2003 or 2005. In general, I do not expect their prices on release (or down the road at auction) to exceed their current futures prices by any significant amount.

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